They will be the first Democrats elected to the Senate from Georgia in two decades. Moreover, Democrats will have a Senate majority come January 20 with Vice President-elect Kamala Harris breaking a 50-50 tie in the Senate.
So what are some of the broader lessons from Tuesday’s elections? Here are five of them.
1. Black voters did it for the Democrats
Make no mistake: Black voters are why Democrats have a Senate majority.
Take a look at the Ossoff race against Republican David Perdue. It was the tighter of the two contests. Remember, Ossoff trailed Perdue by nearly 2 points in November, and Perdue barely missed the majority threshold to avoid a runoff.
Now examine the counties where Black voters made up less than they do in the median county in Georgia. In those counties, Ossoff shrank Perdue’s margin by just half a point on average compared with November.
In the counties where Black voters make up more than they do in the median county, however, Ossoff shrunk Perdue’s margin by about 3 points on average.
2. Straight ticket voting is the rule of the land
Perhaps it shouldn’t have been too surprising that the Senate Democratic candidates won in Georgia. Biden won the state, after all.
When looking at the margins in the races, you see even a stronger correlation between presidential and Senate voting patterns. Not counting uncontested races (i.e. Arkansas, where no Democrat ran for the Senate), there was a +0.94 correlation (on a scale from -1 to +1) between the 2020 Senate results and the presidential voting pattern in a weighted average of the 2016 and 2020 results. That’s the highest since at least 1980 in similar exercises for those elections.
3. Trump is a big reason why the Republicans lost
The straight-ticket voting we saw in Georgia almost didn’t happen. Two months ago, the Senate Republican candidates in both races ran ahead of the Senate Democratic candidates. Only once before in Georgia statewide runoffs had Republicans run behind their November margins.
Now, it’s two times.
The fact that Republicans did worse is even more unusual given that normally the party elected to the White House does worse in elections when its party controls (or is about to control) the White House.
Republicans will have to think long and hard about their relationship with Trump in the future.
4. Georgia is now a purple state
Biden was the first Democrat to win a presidential race there since 1992. You could potentially dismiss that win as an aberration.
Still, the underlying dynamics that shifted Georgia don’t seem to be changing anytime soon. The state has a large Black population. The areas around Atlanta are only moving further left. And unlike in North Carolina, it could prove difficult for Republicans to counteract that movement in less educated areas because they seem to be maxing out their margins in rural Georgia.
5. Georgia shows polling isn’t over
The fact that the polls were good in Georgia wasn’t shocking. Georgia was a rare state where the polling was quite accurate in the November election as well.
Still, the polling was a big reason to believe that the history of Democrats struggling in Georgia runoffs wasn’t going to hold in these special elections.
Going forward, polling can continue to be a tool that informs our understanding of the electorate. As long as we realize it’s a tool with a wide margin of error, it can be quite useful.